Expect five offers, and expect this to trade between $1,380,000 and $1,450,000.
Nine homes within four tenths of a mile asked under $1.3 million. All nine sold over asking, by an average of 12.8 per cent, with a median of 9 days on market. Three asked $1.45 million or more. All three sold under asking and sat a median of 141 days. 65 Olcese is asking $1,188,000 — and the house next door in every meaningful sense, 318 Saint Francis, asked exactly that and got $1,520,000.
→ $1,520,000
– $1,450,000
to +22%
>$1,450,000
Where the five offers come from
Thirty Midvale drew five offers and went above $1,450,000. One buyer is in contract. The other four are still looking, in this tract, this week, having just proved what they will pay. 65 Olcese is now the only comparable expanded home left available, and it is asking $262,000 less than Midvale is getting.
The quiet on day 10 is friction, not weak demand: six owners across three trusts, a
request to allow up to 48 hours for response time
, and no firm offer date to
focus the market. That will not hold once those four find it. When it breaks, it
breaks the way 318 Saint Francis did — fifteen days, $332,000 over ask.
So the plan is not to hunt for a bargain that is about to disappear. It is to be first, be clean, and be at a number the sellers can take before the crowd arrives — all cash, no loan contingency, their choice of closing date.
Read alongside
The companion Disclosure Review covers condition, title and the seller’s obligations — the Zinsco panel and knob-and-tube wiring, the popcorn ceilings removed in July, and the June 2024 water event downstairs. That brief carries the repair budget and the questions to send.
There is a line at $1.3 million, and which side you list on decides everything
This is the clearest signal in the whole data set, and it is not close. Twelve closings, no exceptions in either direction.
- Average premium +12.8%
- Range +4.6% to +27.9%
- Median 9 days on market
- Average discount -10.4%
- Range −2.9% to −24.7%
- Median 141 days on market
Nothing in the middle. Not one home listed under $1.3 million sold for less than it asked, and not one listed at $1.45 million or more sold for what it asked. This is a market that rewards an inviting number and punishes an ambitious one — and it does so fast, with the under-$1.3M group running a median of 9 days against 141 for the group above.
183 Mariposa Avenue is the cautionary tale. Five bedrooms, four baths, 2,215 sq ft, two bedrooms and two baths downstairs, a three-year-old roof. Nothing was wrong with the house. It launched at $1,499,990, sat 141 days, and settled at $1,130,000 — a quarter under ask, and the lowest price per foot in the set at $510. The number was wrong, and the market took a year’s worth of value out of it.
65 Olcese is on the right side of that line. What it has not had is the campaign that usually goes with it.
Every Daly City closing within four tenths of a mile
Median sold $1,292,500. Sorted by sale price. Asking prices come from the Agent Full sheets, so the list-versus-sold column is measured rather than inferred.
| Address | Asked | Sold | vs ask | DOM | Bd/Ba | Sq ft | $/sq ft | Type | What it was |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 183 Camelia Dr0.2 mi · 1958 | $1,700,000 | $1,650,000 | -2.9% | 143 | 7/6 | 2,479 | $666 | Overpriced | Extensively renovated, plus a separate ADU and a studio. Seven bedrooms, six baths - a different product entirely, and it still took 143 days. |
| 318 Saint Francis Blvd0.1 mi · 1959 | $1,188,000 | $1,520,000 | +27.9% | 15 | 5/4 | 2,110 | $720 | Same ask | THE ONE TO READ TWICE. Asked exactly what 65 Olcese is asking and sold $332,000 over it in fifteen days. Downstairs built out to three rooms and two full baths; roof 2019, dual pane, new retaining wall. |
| 377 El Dorado Dr0.1 mi · 1961 | $1,450,000 | $1,400,000 | -3.4% | 61 | 4/3 | 1,975 | $709 | Size match | Remodelled kitchen, engineered hardwood, new roof, dual pane. The closest match on size - and priced at its value rather than under it, so it negotiated for two months. |
| 1341 Southgate Ave0.3 mi · 1959 | $1,288,000 | $1,390,000 | +7.9% | 9 | 3/2 | 1,270 | $1,094 | Remodelled | Quartz, stainless, LVP, dual pane, newer roof. Garage never converted - sold on main-floor area alone at $1,094 a foot. |
| 39 Saint James Ct0.2 mi · 1973 | $1,218,000 | $1,388,888 | +14.0% | 5 | 4/2.5 | 1,830 | $759 | Remodelled | Cul-de-sac, remodelled kitchen with granite and stainless, two pantries, skylit eat-in. Newer construction than the tract at 1973. Five days. |
| 36 Zita Manor0.4 mi · 1962 | $1,250,000 | $1,320,000 | +5.6% | 8 | 4/3 | 1,587 | $832 | Outsized lot | Updated kitchen, gas fireplace, deck with city and mountain views - and a 9,679 sq ft lot, nearly three times the subject's. The lot is doing much of the work in that price. |
| 78 Saint James Ct0.3 mi · 1973 | $1,208,888 | $1,265,000 | +4.6% | 9 | 4/2.5 | 1,650 | $767 | Same playbook | Original owners 52 years, never rented. Original kitchen, new paint and new floor planks - the same cosmetic-refresh-only playbook as 65 Olcese, and it still cleared ask. |
| 1469 Southgate Ave0.2 mi · 1959 | $1,098,000 | $1,260,000 | +14.8% | 12 | 4/3 | 1,710 | $737 | Expanded | Downstairs has a separate entrance, wet bar and a full bath. Public records already carry it as 4bd/3ba at 1,710 sq ft. |
| 272 Verano Dr0.2 mi · 1959 | $1,100,000 | $1,250,000 | +13.6% | 13 | 3/3 | 1,591 | $786 | Expanded | Long-term rental coming to market. Classic Daly City layout with a den and a third bath downstairs behind the garage. Roof 2023. |
| 145 Mariposa Ave0.2 mi · 1959 | $1,100,000 | $1,200,000 | +9.1% | 13 | 4/3 | 1,920 | $625 | Size match | Nearly the same size as 65 Olcese and one bath better, but the entire listing description read “Excellent for a starting family.” No photography effort, no campaign - and it still went over ask. |
| 305 Lakeshire Dr0.4 mi · 1959 | $998,888 | $1,175,000 | +17.6% | 4 | 3/2 | 1,180 | $996 | Fixer | Marketed as a fixer-upper with a downstairs bonus room and unfinished space. Four days on market, 17.6 per cent over ask. |
| 183 Mariposa Ave0.3 mi · 1959 | $1,499,990 | $1,130,000 | -24.7% | 141 | 5/4 | 2,215 | $510 | Overpriced | The cautionary tale. Two bedrooms and two baths downstairs, three-year-old roof - launched at $1,499,990 and capitulated at $1,130,000 after 141 days. Nothing was wrong with the house; the number was wrong. |
The three that bracket 65 Olcese
318 Saint Francis Boulevard — one tenth of a mile away, 1959, expanded to 2,110 sq ft with two full baths downstairs. Asked $1,188,000, the same number 65 Olcese is asking, and sold for $1,520,000.
377 El Dorado Drive — 1,975 sq ft, the closest match on size, with a remodelled kitchen and a new roof. Sold $1,400,000, but only after 61 days, because it launched at $1,450,000 rather than under it.
145 Mariposa Avenue — 1,920 sq ft, almost exactly the subject's
advertised size and one bathroom better, sold $1,200,000. Its entire listing
description was Excellent for a starting family.
No photographs worth the name,
no campaign — and it still went over ask. It is the floor, and it shows
what presentation is worth here.
Three measurements, and the one you use changes everything
Coldwell Banker’s own disclosure puts all three side by side and the sellers signed it. The listing agent has since added the same point to the private remarks, so this is openly on the table rather than buried.
How the numbers reconcile
The appraiser’s sketch resolves it cleanly. The main level measures 53′ × 25′ = 1,325 sq ft and holds three bedrooms, two baths, living, dining and kitchen. The lower level adds 578 sq ft for the family room and fourth bedroom. Together, 1,903.
The assessor’s 1,320 sq ft matches that main level almost exactly. What the roll
calls a 1,170 sq ft unfinished basement
is that same 578 sq ft of finished rooms
plus the 603 sq ft garage — the county never re-rated the lower level after the
City signed it off in 1994.
Two things tilt this the buyer’s way. The sketch labels the lower level
First Floor
, not a basement, and those rooms open directly to the rear yard.
And the permit that legalised them is finaled. That is a materially
stronger position than 30 Midvale, which just sold above $1,450,000 with its entire
downstairs resting on a permit that was issued and never finaled.
Where this actually bites
On a cash purchase the square footage no longer decides whether a loan funds. It decides how much of their capital comes back — the cash-out refinance is taken on the appraiser’s value, not the price paid. Section 08 puts numbers on it.
Freshly presented, honestly dated underneath
July brought fresh paint throughout, refinished hardwood, new carpet on the stairs and downstairs, nine new light fixtures, painted kitchen cabinetry and full staging. It is genuinely well presented — and it did not touch a single system.
The kitchen keeps its 1999 layout and its original white built-in oven; the cabinets were painted rather than replaced. Both bathrooms are original. That matters, because every four-bedroom comparable in the set carries at least two and a half baths — 65 Olcese has exactly two, and both are upstairs, away from the fourth bedroom. It is the single weakest point in the comparison and the clearest thing to fix.
What it already has, and most of its neighbours do not, is 578 sq ft of finished, permitted living space opening to the rear yard, a cul-de-sac position, and an open hillside behind the back fence rather than another roofline.
The direct rival is gone, and it went for a number
30 Midvale Drive took five offers on 18 August and is in contract above $1,450,000. With it off the board, 65 Olcese is the largest advertised floor plan available in this tract under $1.2 million.
| Address | Asking | Status | Bd/Ba | Sq ft | $/sq ft | DOM | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 725 Clarinada Ave | $1,399,000 | Available | 4/2 | 1,431 | $978 | 31 | Main-floor-only at $978/sq ft. Thirty-one days. |
| 69 Norwood Ave | $1,388,888 | Available | 3/3 | 1,772 | $784 | 9 | Three baths, 1,772 sq ft. |
| 30 Midvale Dr | $1,288,800 | Pending | 5/3 | 1,867 | $690 | 11 | GONE - and not quietly. Five offers on the 18 August deadline, and the winning one is reported above $1,450,000. That is more than $161,000 over ask on a house whose downstairs addition was permitted but never finaled. |
| 28 Camelot Court | $1,288,000 | Available | 3/2 | 1,420 | $907 | 5 | New this week. |
| 715 Skyline Dr | $1,288,000 | Contingent | 5/3 | 1,610 | $800 | 22 | Five bed, three bath. Under contract. |
| 62 Simpson Dr | $1,238,000 | Contingent | 4/3 | 1,730 | $716 | 33 | Four bed, three bath, expanded. Under contract. |
| 369 Northaven Dr | $1,198,000 | Available | 3/2 | 1,160 | $1,033 | 11 | Main-floor-only, priced right at the subject. |
| 65 Olcese Court | $1,188,000 | This house | 4/2 | 1,900 | $625 | 10 | Day ten, still available. The most square footage of any active listing under $1.2M in this tract. |
| 23 Southdale Ave | $1,038,000 | Available | 4/2 | 1,270 | $817 | 24 | The other 4bd/2ba. Cut from $1,088,000 to $1,038,000 and still sitting at 24 days. |
| 421 Saint Francis Blvd | $998,888 | Available | 4/3 | 1,640 | $609 | — | Four bed, three bath, 1,640 sq ft, under $1M. |
What the Midvale result does and does not tell you
It is not a read-across on price. 30 Midvale is a professionally renovated 5-bedroom, 3-bathroom house — new kitchen, new baths, 200-amp service, new plumbing — on a larger lot. The distance between it and 65 Olcese is roughly the cost of a kitchen, two baths, a third bathroom downstairs and the electrical: $200,000 to $260,000. Subtract that from $1,450,000 and you land where this brief already had 65 Olcese.
What it does tell you is that the ceiling here is higher than the closed comparables showed, that demand is five buyers deep at that level, and that this pool will accept an addition that was permitted but never finaled — precisely the risk 65 Olcese does not carry. The upside is now measurable rather than hopeful: finish the kitchen, the baths and the electrical and you are holding roughly a $1,400,000 to $1,450,000 asset bought at $1,188,000.
$1,380,000 to $1,450,000
This is the number to work to. It is Lupita’s call, premised on five competing offers — and the twelve-closing set supports it from two independent directions.
| Signal | Indication | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Comp median $/sq ft, applied straight | $1,423,000 | The eight closings of comparable scale that sold in a normal window run a median of $748/sq ft. On 1,903 sq ft that is $1,423,000 - which lands inside this range with no adjustment at all. |
| Premium distribution at five offers | $1,380,000 – $1,450,000 | +16.2% to +22.1% on the asking price. Two of the nine sub-$1.3M sales already beat +16.2%, and the top was +27.9% - so this is the upper decile, which is exactly what five competing offers produces. |
| Comparable-size homes that actually traded | $1,388,888 – $1,520,000 | 39 St. James at 1,830 sq ft sold $1,388,888. 318 St. Francis at 2,110 sq ft sold $1,520,000. 30 Midvale at 1,867 sq ft is in contract above $1,450,000 on five offers. |
| The identical ask, one tenth of a mile away | $1,520,000 | 318 Saint Francis Boulevard asked $1,188,000 - the same number - and sold 27.9% over it in fifteen days. |
| Median of all twelve closings within 0.4 mi | $1,292,500 | Straight median across every size and condition, unadjusted. A floor, not a target. |
| Cotality RealAVM™ | $1,227,000 | Confidence 55 of 100 - low, and it lags a fast-moving tract. Range $944,700 – $1,401,300. |
Two independent roads to the same band
Price per foot. The 7 comparables of comparable scale that sold in a normal window run a median of $729 a square foot. On 1,903 sq ft that is $1,386,546. The midpoint of the expected range, $1,415,000, works out to $744 a foot — within one per cent of the comp median, with no adjustment applied in either direction.
The premium distribution. $1,380,000 to $1,450,000 is +16.2% to +22.1% on the asking price. Two of the nine over-ask sales already exceeded +16.2%, and the highest was +27.9%. A band in that upper decile is precisely what a five-offer situation produces — it is the normal outcome of competition here, not an outlier.
And the absolute check holds. 39 St. James Court, 1,830 sq ft, sold $1,388,888. 318 Saint Francis, 2,110 sq ft, sold $1,520,000. 30 Midvale, 1,867 sq ft, is in contract above $1,450,000 on five offers. Three homes of comparable size have already traded at or above the bottom of this range.
A correction to the earlier draft
The 16 August version of this brief put the range at $1,235,000–$1,310,000. That was over-adjusted. It started from the same $729/sq ft median and then deducted $155,000 to $215,000 for the missing third bath, the electrical, the original kitchen and the single garage bay.
The comp set does not support deductions that large. 78 Saint James Court
sold at $767 a foot with a kitchen its own listing described as one to
bring your creative mind to
— above the median, not below it. In a market
where nine of nine sub-$1.3M homes drew competition, buyers are bidding on location,
size and the chance to own here; they are discounting dated finishes far less than a
line-item adjustment would suggest. The unadjusted median is the better estimator, and
that is what this range now reflects.
The read on price
Plan on $1,380,000 to $1,450,000, midpoint $1,415,000. This is a market opinion, not an appraisal, it assumes the lower level is credited, and it assumes the competition materialises.
The one number to keep separate is the appraisal. The purchase can be won on competition; the refinance is settled by an appraiser working from these same comparables. Section 08 shows what that gap costs if it opens.
What comes back out, and what decides it
The plan is to buy all cash as an investment property and immediately cash-out refinance 75 per cent back out under the delayed financing exception — no six-month wait. The loan is capped at the purchase outlay, a cap that never binds at 75 per cent, so the appraisal sets the cheque.
Modelled on a purchase at $1,415,000, the midpoint of the expected range.
A full appraisal is required — a property inspection waiver is not permitted on this programme — so an appraiser will measure the house and make the call on the 578 sq ft. The spread between the top and bottom rows is roughly $176,250 of returned capital. That is what the square-footage question is worth in cash.
This is the one place where paying up costs something. Buying at $1,415,000 rather than the asking price adds $227,000 to the outlay, and the refinance only returns 75 per cent of whatever the appraiser certifies — not 75 per cent of what was paid. If the appraisal comes in at the comp median rather than at the purchase price, roughly $410,000 stays in the deal instead of $353,750. Worth knowing going in, and worth the three free steps below.
Three things improve the odds, and all three are free. Give the appraiser the appraisal sketch already in the disclosure package, which measures 1,903 and calls the lower level a first floor. Give them the 1994 finaled permit. And give them 318 Saint Francis, 377 El Dorado and 145 Mariposa — all within two tenths of a mile, all sold on counted lower-level area.
One timing trap worth planning around now
On a refinance of a property bought in the same calendar year, both agencies require Form 1007 and a signed lease. A vacant house qualifies on $0 of rent. The tenancy needs to be in place before the refinance is submitted, not after. Market rent here is estimated around $5,150 a month — an estimate, not an appraisal.
From $1,320 a year to roughly $15,351
The Dowd family has held this house since well before 2000, so the assessed value sits at $98,172. The buyer’s basis becomes the purchase price — and as an investment property there is no homeowner’s exemption to soften it.
The rate used is 1.279276% of assessed value plus $153.65 a year in fixed charges, for San Mateo tax rate area 005036. That is not a published figure — it was solved from two actual 2025 secured bills in this tract, 65 Olcese and 30 Midvale, and it reproduces both to the cent.
Expect one or two supplemental bills in the first year for the gap between the old assessment and the new one. They are not sent to a lender and an impound account will not pay them.
Estimated, not quoted
These are estimates. Confirm the exact charges with the San Mateo County Tax Collector before relying on them.
How to win this before the Midvale underbidders find it
- Write this week. Four buyers just lost on 30 Midvale at a number above $1,450,000. They are still shopping and 65 Olcese is the only comparable expanded home left available. Every day of quiet is a day of advantage that will not last.
- Open at $1,380,000 to $1,415,000. That is the bottom half of the expected range and roughly $192,000 over ask. With no competing offer yet on the table it is a number these sellers can simply accept — and a soft anchor here does the opposite of saving money, because it invites them to set an offer date and collect the four Midvale underbidders.
- Ask for an answer inside 24 hours, and make it easy to say yes. A short acceptance window is the mechanism that keeps this from becoming the five-offer auction the range assumes. Everything else in this list exists to make that window credible.
- Lead with the cash, not the price. Six owners across three trusts, no mortgage to pay off, a 48-hour response window. They want certainty. Proof of funds up front, no loan contingency, no appraisal contingency.
- Keep a short inspection contingency anyway. Seven to ten days buys an electrician, an industrial hygienist and a sewer camera. Against an all-cash offer that still reads as strong.
- Give them the close date they want. With no lender in the deal you can close in two weeks or wait six. Say so explicitly — it costs nothing and no financed buyer can match it.
- Hold $1,450,000 as the ceiling. That is the top of the expected range and $762 a foot — already above the comp median. Past it you are bidding against an appraiser who will be working from these same twelve closings, and every dollar over lands as cash left permanently in the deal rather than refinanced back out. If it becomes a genuine auction, that is the discipline; another one comes along.
Before writing
Two calls, both free, both capable of moving the number: an insurance broker on the Zinsco and knob-and-tube question, and the Daly City Planning Division on (650) 991-8158 about the 2024 rezoning notice in the seller’s package. Both are set out in the Disclosure Review.
How this was built
The comparable set is the twelve Daly City single-family closings within four tenths of a mile of 65 Olcese Court, selected by Lupita Sanchez and confirmed against MLSListings on August 23, 2026. Agent Full detail sheets were pulled for each so that original asking price, sale price, close date, days on market and the marketing description are measured rather than inferred. An earlier draft of this brief used a wider street-name filter; that set has been replaced entirely by this one, which is tighter geographically. 30 Midvale Drive is in contract rather than closed and is excluded from every median.
Square footage comes from the seller’s Coldwell Banker Square Footage and Lot Size Disclosure dated 12 August 2026, read against the appraisal sketch by Real Estate Appraisal Professionals, the Aerial Canvas floor plans and the Cotality Realist report. Permit history is from the City of Daly City 3R report of 21 July 2026. Title facts are from the WFG National Title preliminary report of 24 June 2026. The tax rate was solved from two actual 2025 secured bills in this tax rate area. Photographs are the listing photographs for MLS ML82057571.
What this is not
A broker’s opinion of value prepared to help you decide what to offer. It is not an appraisal. Repair figures live in the companion brief and are estimates unless marked as quoted. This tract moves quickly — if more than two weeks pass before an offer, ask me to refresh it again.